PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENGUNJUNG PERPUSTAKAAN MENGGUNAKAN  DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Sherli Yurinanda; Sarmada Sarmada; Syamsyida Rozi; Anisya Tasya; Dirani Amaris Fajrin

doi:10.33503/prismatika.v6i2.3784

Sherli Yurinanda Universitas Jambi
Sarmada Sarmada Universitas Jambi
Syamsyida Rozi Universitas Jambi
Anisya Tasya Universitas Jambi
Dirani Amaris Fajrin Universitas Jambi

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33503/prismatika.v6i2.3784

Keywords: Double Exponential Smoothing, Prediction, Library Visitors

Abstract

The library is an information center that needs to be managed effectively. The large number of library visitors reflects the efforts made to increase student literacy. This research aims to predict the number of visitors to the Faculty of Science and Technology Library, Jambi University using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt method which is predicted by giving smoothing values to a series of previous observations with parameter values α=0.775 and β= 0.367. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from daily data from the Jambi University Faculty of Science and Technology library, totaling 125 data. Predictions show that the number of visitors in the next 5 periods is expected to increase by 48 visitors. The forecast accuracy value from data on the number of visitors to the Jambi University Faculty of Science and Technology library uses a MAPE (Mean Absolute Precentage Error) value of 18.878%, meaning the forecasting model is in the good category.

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